“Strategic Alpha -The Blog”, and Indian Stock Market – Oct 2018

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October 9, 2018

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Strategic Alpha

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Dear Followers,

September 2018 was the worst month for the Indian stock market in several years.

Domestic funds that were booming for the last few years had a net outflow of 75,000 crores.

Very clearly we are in a bear market. Negativity and pessimism are rampant.

Stocks across sectors and market caps are being beaten down on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis.

There are several examples where stocks have gone down 40 – 50% in a month.

These are times when a DHFL fell 42% in a single day and Yes Bank fell 32% on the same day.

Last week was the worst week in the last 3 years. Fear and panic are at their highest level all across the market.

The best course of action during such times is to stay calm. And that is definitely not easy 🙂

Let us look at some aspects here.

For the first time in 10 years, the US and Indian markets have diverged. Otherwise, they always moved in tandem.

Even among emerging and peer markets, India is doing extremely bad.

Macro factors are all negative. The oil price increase, Rupee depreciation. Various economic parameters look bleak.

Even at the stock market level, there has been a collapse in NBFC. This was triggered by the IL&FS discovery.

As stock market participants, these are things that are not under our control.

Now let us look at some other realities.

In life, bad times never last, and good times also never last 🙂

Just like that, after every bear market, there is a bull market, and after bullishness there is bearishness.

Stock prices move like waves with ups and downs. No wave is permanent.

Now we are witnessing the downs in their worst form. We need to wait with patience and conviction for the good times to return.

From my 12 Years of Experience in the Market, I have learned that it is impossible to predict the future. So we don’t make any predictions. It’s of no use.

Prediction is impossible and a waste of time and effort, it just creates unnecessary anxiety and messes up our mind and life. Moreover the bear market never gave us any warning, just like even a bull market will not give any warning. So what indices do or the overall market does is not relevant. We must be only interested in our stocks/Companies and their Business.

Let us now look at the blog in specific.

Stocks that we own belong to fundamentally very sound companies.

Some blogs where I write ”Safe and Potential Multibagger ” have a strong record, sound business model, proven management, and excellent potential for growth.

These companies are bound to grow and revenues and profitability in the coming quarters and years. The share prices will follow them.

So once the sentiment turns and we see over-all optimism;

Greed and fear

The worst bear market in the last decade Lasted for 10 Months, This time it has started around Feb 2018 so we may be in the last phase of the Bear Market.

All our stocks will bounce back and give us the profits that we are here for.

Until then we need to SIT TIGHT.

Like I have said several times and will repeat again, PATIENCE and CONVICTION is the key.

Though so many factors are not in our control.

Having patience, conviction, and being calm is definitely under our control. Meditation will surely be helpful.

It is not easy, but it can be practiced. It needs to be made a habit.

Just like a smoker can kick the smoking habit, we need to get out of the habit of looking at share prices. It is possible.

One way to do this is to ignore the share prices completely for a few months.

Looking at the share prices will not make any difference to their price movement.

When they have to up, they will go up. And at the right time, We are here to let you know about their profit potential and when to sell.

Until then;

If you have any questions or clarifications please feel free to write back. With prior notice, I can always be available.

To add, there are a handful of Opportunities currently in many stocks with almost no risks(Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose Much) at least I can see 8-10 Small debt-free, Cash Rich Companies which can do Multifold Profits in the Next 5 Years. As and when I get time to write, I will write those blogs.

Best Regards!

Strategic Alpha.

All the very best. I wish for all of us to be patient.

And benefit from the long-term potential of wealth creation.

Good day!

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Very important note: The objective of this blog is to share knowledge and info about multi-bagger ideas/opportunities. Neither is this trading website nor an analyst website nor a Buy/Sell call website. For stock market success, always do your homework, own analysis, and make your own decisions.

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The author of the blog Mr.Suyog Dhavan is a Full-time Investor / Value Trader and Value investing/Trading Mentor. His style of Investing is inspired by Mohnish Pabrai, Peter Lynch, and Porinju Veliath. He is the founder of Strategic Alpha Wealth, A Premier stock market mentorship firm with a mission to touch the lives of 1Lakh people through its mentorship program.

3 Comments

  1. Vikas Jain

    Thanks a lot, for these post.

  2. Yogesh Patil

    Can you guess where the market will head during election period ? In stock specific, What is future of Dhampur sugar in context of ethanol policy?

    • Strategic Alpha

      Hello Yogesh,
      I dont do guess works. Nobody knows where the market will be during election period. I choose High Quality Business that i Understand and invest in it. I dont go more than 3-4 Stocks at any point of time and My Approach is always concentrated and Focus.

      Moreover in entire sugar space i only track safest stock Triveni Engineering, it has a great future in context to ethanol. No idea about dhampur.

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